The optimistic view of the expected defaults is that there credit checking has improved. I’ve always been cautious with P2P the potential to make high defaults credited to relatively small issues in credit checking. P2P generally employs only soft credit checks previous to loan acceptance. Due to relatively low market share of a P2P company of all loans, an error missing a bad credit marker identified by the other lenders could become catastrophic. Even if this marker only applied to less than 1% of potential debtors, this might become a very large number of applicants relative to the loans 1 P2P service provider is originating.

This would lead to giving sub-market estimates to these applicants (ie their rates do not properly charge for the credit risk identified by that marker). These would then be accepted by a higher percentage of the applicants concerned, which could be a high proportion of the loans agreed by that P2P.

Hence their entire loan publication would underestimate the credit risk. Such mistakes shall arrive in default rates. I do not know whether comparison sites currently enable automated personalized loan quotes to be obtained from soft checking providers, but if they don’t now I expect they’ll soon! As I’ve submitted somewhere else, LW has considerably increased the contributions to the Fund. Whether is of course a matter of judgment sufficiently.

Personally I stopped lending on RS at one point when lesser extra default issues arose. Since it transpired they appear to have weathered that particular bad debt tranche. Is this low risk? Not Definitely. 1 result is statistically insignificant data from which to assess the future. THEREFORE I hold my nose and dive in but ensure that I don’t invest critical funds in P2P.

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